Elections to the Duma: certainties and uncertainties

Is there anyone who still believes that the upcoming parliamentary elections are important?These people belong to a shrinking minority, which should not surprise us. The announcement of the return of Putin to the presidency has attracted the attention of experts and the general public. The announcement solved the mystery of the next major election cycle. If Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev will continue as joint lead managers of the powerful executive branch, who cares about the composition of the lower legislative body whose sole function (as widely believed) is to pass decrees, an organization whose president himself defined as "a place unfit for political debates"?
 
Still, the Duma is important and so are the parliamentary elections. The House tredicionalmente plays an important role in developing the state budget. It is also a convenient platform for regions to submit their cases to the federal government, which attracts numerous Duma pressure groups representing different interests. Every region and major city thinks it's essential to have a representative in the Duma, not to mention big business. The office of deputy carries a certain prestige and criminal immunity.Consequently, many employers are seeking membership of Parliament to raise its public profile and protection against criminal prosecution. In many cases what is disputed is the ability to achieve these benefits, while party loyalists may become victims of these struggles. So Sergey Shishkariov, a noted personality of United Russia, after learning of its delisting from the ruling party, offered his services to the Communist Party parliamentarians. These, after careful consideration, rejected this generous offer.
 
Experts predict that the composition of the next Duma will follow a formula of "3 +2". This means that only three parties exceed 7% threshold required to enter the House and form a parliamentary group. Where two parties to obtain between 5% and 7% of the votes will be allowed to occupy one or two seats, according to a recent reform of the electoral law.
 
The Holy Trinity of the parties has ensured its presence in the UK consists Duma, the Communist Party (KPRF) and Liberal-Democratic Party (LDPR). Aware that their place in the Duma is guaranteed and will not be allowed to obtain results that could threaten the dominance of United Russia, the KPRF and LDPR have chosen to carry out discrete campaigns. The programs presented are both traditional combination of excess claims for social spending and a slight criticism of the UK, but not to Vladimir Putin in person. No program includes bold proposals, not even original, unless we take into account the KPRF's promise to create a "new union of brotherly nations" or the LDPR's desire to ban pornography on the web. With an eye on the elections, the Communists rely on the undying loyalty of their constituents and a strong network of regional organizations, while the LDPR will benefit from the entertaining television appearances of its leader, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who at 65 years is a "formidable state," according to analysts agree.
 
The right-Just Cause, after having expelled its leader and chief promoter, Mikhail Prokhorov, in an internal uprising, lost any chance to enter the Duma. Although the party could still keep an ace up its sleeve: the new leadership would expect Prokhorov's resignation will be rewarded by the involvement of more senior advisers of the Presidential Administration. The polls suggest they would get 3% of the electorate, which would make Just Cause receive state funding over the next five years. At this point, however, it is unclear how Andrei Dunaiev and his collaborators are interested in running the election campaign. It seems they are more concerned with legal loopholes to enable them to retain the 800 billion rubles (25 to 28 million dollars) Prokhorov contributed to the coffers of the party.
 
The choice will be particularly complex for Just Russia (RJ), a former ally of the government from the center. After their leader, Sergei Mironov, was moved from command of the Federation Council (upper house of the Federal Assembly), RJ lost the administrative resources available to us in the past. The defection of senior leaders and financial backers further weakened the party. At one point it seemed that RJ was moving towards the opposition to the Kremlin. But this did not happen, and tone down criticism of UK and discarded plans include a number of prominent opposition figures in the electoral list. Apparently, the "matter Prokhorov" has taught everyone, including Mironov, a valuable lesson: facing the presidential administration only makes things worse. It is very unlikely that RJ can keep their place in the parliament. However, they do have chances of getting one or two seats, one for Mironov and one for his right hand, Nikolai Levichev.
 
A surprise winner of the next election could be the dying liberal Yabloko party. As rumors say that you hear in Moscow, the presidential administration seems to have completely abandoned the idea of ​​having a liberal party in the next Duma. So, having put an end to the draft Prokhorov, the Kremlin has looked and decided that Yabloko's leader, highly respected economist Grigory Yavlinsky, the liberal is appointed to the Duma. Yabloko might then agree with RJ and become the second "mini-parties' parliamentary, according to the formula" 3 +2 ".
 
The biggest mystery still remains to be determined is whether UK can obtain the constitutional majority. In the past, this was achieved with the help of two factors: Putin's personal popularity and the formidable electoral machine of the ruling party. This year, two new cards on board: the Popular Front of All Russia and Medvedev as a leading candidate from the electoral list of United Russia. It is still not entirely clear how these elections will unfold. The excitement surrounding the creation of the Popular Front is not comparable to that aroused United Russia, at least for now, Medvedev named Putin instead of voting only confuses the campaign managers.
 
Recent events present a challenge for Medvedev himself. On the one hand, as president promised to ensure that the elections were transparent and honest. For another, his own political future depends on the results obtained in December UK. Remains to be seen how this will be combined obvious conflict of interest between Medvedev, the outgoing president and powerless, and Medvedev, would-be party leader.